Find them here at my namesake site.
Once you’ve read ’em come back here, click on the “more” link, and see how I think it’ll shake out.
First things first: there are thunderstorms forecast for the afternoon and evening of the election, which will keep the fair weather voters at bay – the kind of voters that challengers need to win.
At-Large Council – Dem: Brown wins by default, but he doesn’t really deserve to.
At-Large Council – Republican: Mara will squeak out a victory, 51-49.
Ward 2: I think that Evans will beat Silverman, though not by a comfortable margin – I’d say it’s going to be a 60-40 breakdown.
Ward 4: Muriel Bowser will win handily.
Ward 7: Yvette Alexander will win because of her close association with Vincent Gray, as well as her direct access to his field team.
Ward 8: Marion Berry will be elected again, to the detriment of his Ward and the District.
Shadow Senator: Strauss will win by a 65-35 margin.
Shadow Rep: Panetta wins by default (no challenger).
DC Democratic State Committee: not gonna even venture a guess!
Keith Ivey
8 September 2008 — 19:34
Do you think an actual Republican Republican can win in the general? Granted, the independents aren’t exactly formidable, but Brown has name recognition and surely would get the backing of Democrats if he were running against a Republican who wasn’t the familiar, nonthreatening Carol Schwartz (someone people who deal with the council want to keep on good terms with). And don’t discount the power of “Vote Brown and Brown” as an unofficial slogan.
Keith Ivey
8 September 2008 — 19:35
Then again, Michael Brown has repeatedly annoyed Fenty. But Fenty’s popularity isn’t what it once was.
randomduck
9 September 2008 — 00:21
Yes, I do think a Republican can win in the general. Look at Carol: she’s won time and again, and she’s a Republican (though about as centrist a Repub as you can get). Same with Catania, who only left the party because the Log Cabin Repubs were given the cold shoulder at the convention in 2004.
I think that a lot of people (and certainly quite a few in the media) will ask why, exactly, Hunter and Brown left the Democratic Party. Especially with Brown, it seems to be a divorce of convenience, not of true belief. And then there’s the split vote likelihood: Hunter and Brown can split the Dem vote, and Mara can sneak in and win it.
Lots to ponder, that’s for sure!
Keith Ivey
9 September 2008 — 01:31
That’s why I said “Republican Republican”. Mara is coming at Schwartz from the right, criticizing her as insufficiently business-friendly. I can’t see that going over well with many DC voters.
I imagine most people assume Hunter and Brown are running as independents only because of the way the at-large elections work. Hell, Catania might well be a Democrat now if he didn’t have to be an independent, judging by his support of Hillary Clinton and Jeanne Shaheen. But I can’t see people holding that against them. They didn’t hold it against Bill Lightfoot.
You’re right about splitting the votes, though.