I volunteered at the 2002 Olympic Winter Games in Salt Lake City, and it hardly seems like it was four years ago – the memories are still fresh in my mind. And I’m a little bummed that I’m not in Torino right now (but I will be there for Vancouver 2010, dammit).

But the games are starting, so it’s time for me to come up with predictions for the alpine skiing events. In a subsequent post I’ll throw caution to the wind with some other events where I stand as good a chance as any of the know-nothings of the mass media in terms of accuracy.

ALPINE SKIING

Mens Downhill

  1. Daron Rahlves (USA)
  2. Fritz Strobl (AUT)
  3. Bode Miller (USA)

Dark Horses: Michael Walchhofer (AUT), Hermann Maier (AUT), Kjetil Andre Aamodt (NOR), Steve Nyman (USA), Kristian Ghedina (ITA)

Notes: Daron laid the smack down on the first training run on Thursday, showing that he’s ready to win this thing. Strobl is also looking primed, and Bode rises to the challenge. There are some others who could do well, and this is a technical race, with few flats to favor the gliders (read: there will be no Bill Johnson emerging from the pack). Michael Walchhofer (AUT) is the current leader in the World Cup DH standings, and he could win this race. Hermann Maier (AUT) seems to have his speed legs back, and he’s all about rising to the occasion. Kristian Ghedina (ITA) is the sentimental home country favorite, and this course can ply to his strengths. It’s silly to discount the ancient Norwegian duo of Aamodt and Lasse Kjus, who have a ton of Olympic and World Championship hardware between them. And Steve Nyman (USA) is peaking at the right time.

Womens Downhill

  1. Renate Goetschl (AUT)
  2. Janiça Kostelic (CRO)
  3. Lindsay Kildow (USA)

Dark Horses: Julia Mancuso (USA), Michaela Dorfmeister (AUT), Alexandra Meissnitzer (AUT), Anja Paerson (SWE)

Notes: Goetschl is always a threat in the big races, and this race could be good to her. Likewise, Kostelic seems to know how to turn on a little extra “oomph” for marquée races. Kildow’s time should be now, and she could win it if she overcomes her nerves. Of the dark horses, Mancuso is the cream of said crop: she’s peaking right now, and she’s got such a great attitude toward racing. Paerson won on this hill last year, though TOROC re-graded the course due to complaints of it being “too easy,” which could knock her out. Maybe we’ll see Kirsten Clark (USA) pull out something magical for her final Olympics. And never, ever count out the Austrians.

Mens Super G

  1. Bode Miller (USA)
  2. Hermann Maier (AUT)
  3. Daron Rahlves (USA)

Dark Horses: Benni Raich (AUT), Scott McCartney (USA), Christoph Gruber (AUT), Askel Lund Svindal (NOR), Lasse Kjus (NOR), Kjetil Andre Aamodt (NOR), Peter Fill (ITA)

Notes: This could be the best chance for a sweep by the USA, as McCartney has a hot hand leading into the games. However, Maier and Raich are racing strong, and the Norwegian trio is formidable. And Peter Fill could pull one off for the home crowd.

Womens Super G

  1. Janiça Kostelic (CRO)
  2. Julia Mancuso (USA)
  3. Michaela Dorfmeister (AUT)

Dark Horses: Alexandra Meissnitzer (AUT), Anja Paerson (SWE), Kirsten Clark (USA), Lindsay Kildow (USA), Nadia Styger (SUI)

Notes: I think that Kostelic and Mancuso will be on-form for this race, but again, the Austrians can’t be counted out. Likewise, the Americans are stronger than ever, with a lot of depth that could load up the podium if the planets align. And Styger is the best Swiss woman since Vreni Schneider retired almost a decade ago.

Mens GS

  1. Massimilliano Blardone (ITA)
  2. Bode Miller (USA)
  3. Erik Schlopy (USA)

Dark Horses: Benni Raich (AUT), Daron Rahlves (USA), Fredrik Nyberg (SWE), Kalle Pallander (FIN), Davide Simoncelli (ITA), Thomas Grandi (CAN)

Notes: My guess is that Blardone will lay it on the line for this race, his only real chance to medal. However, the three American skiers will be giving it their all, and if Bode can put together two classic runs he’ll win. But that’s a big “if.” Schlopy is quite good at notching things up in the big events, and if Rahlves has momentum from the DH and SG, he could podium here. Raich is the realy threat, his consistency making him the prime candidate to move up if anybody makes a mistake. Nyberg and Pallander are also quite good, though the latter is more of a threat in slalom. And Grandi could surprise: he’s quite good when the odds are against him.

Womens GS

  1. Janiça Kostelic (CRO)
  2. Anja Paerson (SWE)
  3. Maria Jose Rienda (SPA)

Dark Horses: Julia Mancuso (USA), Nicole Hosp (AUT), Tina Maze (SLO), Genevieve Simard (CAN), Kathrin Zettel (AUT)

Notes: The “Janiça and Anja Show” continues here, with Rienda added in for extra variety. This is very likely the top three for this race, though the order could be different than I predict. Also, if Mancuso is still in top form, she could sneak in and grab some hardware. Hosp and Zettel represent for Austria, always a legitimate threat. Maze has shown good GS skiing this year, as has Simard for the resurgent Canadians.

Mens Slalom

  1. Ted Ligety (USA)
  2. Giorgio Rocca (ITA)
  3. Benni Raich (AUT)

Dark Horses: Kalle Pallander (FIN), Jean-Pierre Vidal (FRA), Bode Miller (USA)

Notes: In the last World Cup race before the games, Ligety skied a run over a second faster than Rocca or Raich – and with a costly mistake (ski tip going over a gate) that, while it resulted in a disqualification, actually slowed him down. So Ligety is skiing the fastest slalom going into the Olympics. Rocca has been remarkably consistent, winning the first five slaloms of the World Cup season and wrapping up the season-long title last month, but he could be on the way down. Raich, ever-consistent, should win a medal if he finishes (and he’s the most consistent finisher on the World Cup circuit over the last few years). Pallander is skiing well right now, as is Vidal, the 2002 gold medialist. And then there’s Bode: if he can put together two fast, relatively mistake-free runs, he could win. Or not.

Womens Slalom

  1. Janiça Kostelic (CRO)
  2. Marlies Shild (AUT)
  3. Anja Paerson (SWE)

Dark Horses: Nicole Hosp (AUT), Tanja Poutienen (FIN), Laure Pequegnot (FRA), Kristina Koznick (USA)

Notes: Kostelic and Schild have owned the slalom discipline this season, with Janiça showing better form going into the games. Paerson, Hosp and Poutianen are all skiing well, too, though not at the level of Schild or Kostelic. Pequegnot is always an outside threat. And Kos – what to do? She suffered a partial ACL tear last week, and has been fitted for a brace. But will she race? Who knows? She’s really driven to race, this being her final season on the circuit. If she has strength, I can’t count her out. But it’s a long shot, at best.

Mens Combined

  1. Bode Miller (USA)
  2. Benni Raich (AUT)
  3. Kjetil Andre Aamodt (NOR)

Dark Horses: Lasse Kjus (NOR), Michael Walchhofer (AUT), Rainer Schönfelder (AUT), Peter Fill (ITA), Askel Lund Svindal (NOR), Ted Ligety (USA)

Notes: This is, more than any other, Bode’s to lose. He has the fastest combination of DH and SL skills, and the “classic” combined format (one run of DH in the morning, two SL runs in the afternoon and evening) plays to his strengths. Raich is not as fast in DH as Miller, but is more consistent in SL. Aamodt and Kjus have essentially owned this event for the past 15 years, and are still threats (Kjus won in 2002), and Svindal looks to pick up their slack for the next decade. Fill is a local favorite. And Ligety could really show ’em, as the DH is not overly bad for his style.

Womens Combined

  1. Janiça Kostelic (CRO)
  2. Lindsay Kildow (USA)
  3. Anja Paerson (SWE)

Dark Horses: Julia Mancuso (USA), Nicole Hosp (AUT), Marlies Schild (AUT)

Notes: This one is no contest: Kostelic is leaps-and-bounds better than the rest of the field in this race. If Kildow can keep her mental game on the right track, she could win a silver – but if she’s off, look for Paerson to pick up the medal. If Mancuso is on-form, she could surprise – not with a win, but with a silver or bronze.